In Defense of Ignorance: Not Waiting on Certainty’s Permission

Earlier today while driving I came upon an intersection in a forest preserve. I had two options: continue straight to the parking lot or turn left down a scenic one-way road. I was almost certain the scenic road to the left was a public drive. However, I will admit, to my shame, “almost certain” was not sufficient for me. I spent a few minutes searching online to be absolutely certain before turning.

While this is a perfectly legitimate use of the near-infinite knowledge at my fingertips (thanks Internet!), I am bothered to think that even on a casual Sunday drive I was waiting on certainty’s permission before exploring.

There is goodness in access to knowledge, but I would suggest that many of our decision-making habits that rely on immediate access to knowledge might not be entirely healthy.

In the example of the left turn, I didn’t really face a really important question: What was the cost of being wrong (mild embarrassment) and what did I pay to be certain?

I’m convinced it’s not just me who has sought the persuasiveness of certainty’s permission.

I see this particularly in business circles when there is a lot of waiting for “enough” knowledge to have absolute certainty. Not only is “enough” knowledge almost never available, by the time “enough” knowledge is compiled, it’s either expired or ubiquitous.

It does matters that you have knowledge to make uncertain decisions. It also matters what knowledge you collect. You have a finite attention span, and indiscriminately taking in information has an attention cost that rarely gets noticed. (e.g., the migration patterns of the swans in your office’s pond might not be the deciding factor for how you choose your relocation strategy).  Knowing the right area to focus is much more valuable than having a perfect vision of the facts.

I don’t have a recipe for knowing when “enough” is enough. I think it does take time and art to know when to act when knowledge is imperfect. I also know, regardless of the size of the decision, you can’t wait for certainty’s permission because you will end up waiting a lifetime.